Tuesday 30 May 2017

Of Contending Economic Paradigms and 2018 Elections, Stolen Youth Dreams and Resurgent Democratic Opposition

The Limitations of Zimbabwe’s Contending Political Economy Paradigms and the 2018 Elections. Dr Tinashe Nyamunda*

The Contending Paradigms.
As the 2018 elections in Zimbabwe draw near, the political contest on which political party is best suited to steer the country towards a better future will be dominated by the economic agenda during campaigns. The kind of language that both ZANU PF and the opposition coalition led by the MDC (M) will use to persuade the electorate has become all too familiar.

On the one hand will be the nationalist/patriotic discourse celebrating land reform and advancing the programme for indigenisation and economic empowerment. Inherently connected to that is a sharp criticism of global imperial machinations against Zimbabwe through sanctions against a party determined to defend the fruits of its economic transformation following the fast track land reform programme. Underlying this discourse is the argument that Zimbabwe is using local economic transformation to challenge the worst excesses of enduring global imperialism. ZANU PF will again depict the opposition, particularly the MDC, as a movement that is severely compromised by collusion with the imperialist west to the extent that it will struggle to balance local national interests against those of the British and American governments.

Offering an alternative narrative to this discourse is opposition politics that will claim that the more immediate struggle is against nationalist authoritarianism. Making reference to the unending economic crisis, the opposition will argue that the ruling party presided over a poor human rights record, economic collapse characterised by high deindustrialisation, record unemployment, the informalisation of the economy and hyperinflation in the period between 2000 to 2009; as well as its contrasting current excesses of severe illiquidity. The suggested alternative will be re-engagement with the global economy through attracting investment and creating jobs for all.

The Utility of the Paradigms?
Both strategies are influential and very effective to respective constituencies of the political parties, but are also limited in terms of their capacity to sustainably develop a vibrant economy in the context of the complex global political economy. This is especially true as Zimbabwe has experienced tremendous changes in the nature of its society and economy, all of which have been shaped by the trajectory that its politics has followed. At the attainment of independence and for the better part of the first two decades, the political narrative followed the contours of the now infamous patriotic history narrative deployed to steer the power dynamics of the post-colony. Towards the turn of the century and influenced by a number of political and economic changes, the government shifted from its early collusion with colonial and foreign capital (the reconciliation of Zimbabwe with Rhodesia) towards a kind of decolonial turn characterised by the politics of radical economic redistribution of land and commercial resources. The shift, forced as it was by forces outside the corridors of power but ultimately shaped by consideration of political survival, represented a kind of exhausted nationalism. In fact, the patriotic narrative was criticised for elevating the record of the ruling party as one of the sole authority on liberation, transformation and empowerment while failing to call the state to account for the crisis it presided over since the 2000s.

Remembering History: The Nuances
Historians of Zimbabwe have indeed taken up the challenge to demonstrate that history is not limited to a narrative about “armed men liberating the land from white settlers”, that “the Zimbabwe crisis is by no means simply a land crisis. It is best understood as ‘a complex set of historically specific, interrelated and mutually reinforcing crises that need to be unpacked and analysed in relation to one another’”. Historians cautioned that reducing history to political agendas results “in the flattening of difference; the privileging of certain voices over others; and the identification of hegemonic nationalism as the bearer of improvement and progress”. This is not to discredit the nationalist nuances of Zimbabwe’s history, but to call for more holistic and inclusive histories. Such an approach decentres politics and incorporates other perspectives in the search for a more sustainable challenge to the colonial legacies that we still face today.
It was in this context that the politics of democratic change emerged, promising to repair the economic damage caused by the government’s radical turn. The MDC and its various splinter factions’ main criticism about economic collapse was that ZANU PF had failed to manage it and lost the confidence of foreign investors.

Not Walking the Talk: Mugabe Enjoy Foreign Crisps at his Birthday

Although the ruling party never sounds a trumpet to acknowledge this criticism, some its senior members accept that the country is in crisis. But they offer a different explanation. In their view, the radical changes to the economic structure from one based on the colonial distribution of land and other resources were critically overdue and required redress.  To them, such a marked shift in racial-economic relations upset the diplomatic relations between Zimbabwe and the imperial west resulting in sanctions. But the critical economic imbalance was still overdue and was confronted by the deployment of big man authoritarian politics, requiring a stalwart figure that could stand up to western condemnation. But in spite of the limits of the nationalist party’s patriotic narrative and the democratic discourse’s appeal, the country became split between the various emerging interests. The economy, once formally based, anchored on agrarian development and white monopoly and foreign capital, enjoying high employment and a vibrant secondary industry was gradually transformed into one where the mass of the unemployed exploited a vent within an informal economy arising out of formal economic collapse and a reconstructed agrarian base. In this new narrative, the patronage based politics of ZANU PF is pitted against the democratic and formal economic recovery discourse of opposition politics whose main challenges is representing workers in an economy dominated by informality and a dwindling labour base.

Counting the Opportunity Cost of Reform
But they represent a very specific local political and economic dynamic that does not adequately confront a much broader issue in Zimbabwe’s global economic context.  The nuanced character of Zimbabwe’s economy is that interests have become widely disparate, depending on economic access to resources.

ZAR200 Million Mansion: Allegedly Bought from Diamond Proceeds

The main issues being addressed, and indeed for political expediency, are temporal. The nationalist party’s discourse of transformation was land, but this had not adequately yielded the expected transformative outcomes as poverty still reigns and the economy struggles. The brief moment of the GNU and its currency stabilisation, on the other hand, failed to persuade the nation to fully back the political change, democracy and economic recovery discourse as the 2013 elections demonstrate. Certainly, the concerns of Zimbabwe’s electorate are much more nuanced and disparate than initially envisaged. For example, the concerns of the beneficiaries, at lower level of the value chain, of land reform are their continued and undisturbed access to this resource, just as is the case with people whose livelihoods have been based on state grants for small businesses in trade, fisheries and other trades. This includes, higher up the value chain, tenderpreneurs and politicians who have benefited from national resources, for example in the mining in diamonds, platinum and gold. To convince these beneficiaries of the imagined progressive alternative of democracy politics would be difficult. On the other hand, to convince the suffering middle class, mass of unemployed youths and informal traders that the exclusive ZANU PF project can sustainably address the national economic challenges has proved inadequate.

The Limitations of the Redistributive or Radical Narrative
For me, the political philosophy of Zimbabwe is too narrowly confined. We tend to forget that any economic transformation, redistributed or not, if limited in scope to the national context will not have a sustainable long term effect on the economy. In my view, the discourse needs to incorporate broader geo-political-economic considerations. For example, to what extent can external markets determine the fortunes of our economy? I could argue that the best example on how a state can sustain a formal vibrant national economy can be derived from the UDI Rhodesian experience. Despite global sanctions against the colony, the Rhodesian Front government managed to keep their heads above water, managing to even prosper more significantly in comparison to our entire postcolonial experience. But of course, the crucial benefits were for the minority white constituency while Africans were kept at the periphery of this economy. This is among the reasons why the liberation war was waged, to rid the country of this discrimination, but the point is that the Rhodesians economic coordination machinery worked to their advantage.

At independence, much the same structures were maintained, in which the markets, especially the external markets which Zimbabwe was re-integrated into, influenced the direction of politics to a significant degree. This partially explains why the ZANU PF government could not immediately implement radical economic changes. As they were pushed into a corner, the changes emerged from outside the state, from landless people seeking land, workers suffering collapsing standards of living, war veterans demanding compensation, indigenous business people unhappy with exclusion from the mainstream economy. The opposition rode this wave of mass discontent to challenge nationalist rule. In response, the state was forced to implement radical changes to appease pockets of the discontented through land reform, compensating war veterans and instituting programmes of indigenisation and economic empowerment. But this had the adverse effect of affecting the markets, and the result was economic plunge, most manifest in hyperinflation and demonetisation.

The Global Markets: The Missing Link
But all political formations, although disagreeing on the process, concur that many of these changes were necessary. Yet they all regret the response of the markets and desire a return to reengaging them. Therein lies the problem. The discourse of attracting investment needs to consider the power that these markets have in determining the political course of the nation. Markets have complex relationships with developing countries, anchored as they are on highly nuanced operations. The financial investments on stock markets, money markets, bonds markets etc, depend on a very specific model of economy. Whatever the economic reconfigurations within Zimbabwe and despite who leads it; beyond temporal constituency appeasement, my main worry is the ability and extent to which the markets will take us back to the beginning. This concern is never seriously considered in our political discourse but needs some level of attention. It should not just be about retaining power or political change, but should prompt active imaginations about how to confront a fast-changing global economy that has the power to direct how economies integrated into it operate. For me, economic transformation limited to domestic considerations is inadequate and can be rendered hopelessly unsound if they fall out of line with what investors expect if they are to realise profitable returns. Not that we should comply with market demands, far from it, we should understand how they work so that we are able to navigate them and derive optimum benefit without compromising the balanced aspiration of the disparate interests of those who constitute what can become the nation of Zimbabwe. At present, we are too fractured on competing visions of what the nation should be and the type of economy that should support it, but I will urge all the leaders to consider imagining this local/global economy nexus as part of their very crucial strategies towards appeasing their various constituencies in terms of the immediate demands placed on them.

*Dr Tinashe Nyamunda is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow with the International Studies Group, University of the Free State, South Africa.


Born-Free but Not Free: The Dilemmas of the Post-Independence Generation. Sharon Wekwete*

Not Yet Uhuru: Chasing the Shadows of Freedom
I know I am still young but sometimes I feel so old. I was born free but, for most of my life, I have had to carry the weight of the world on my shoulders. Granted, I have enjoyed some of the benefits that came with independence from colonial oppression but the fruits of liberation seem to have left a bad, sour taste in my mouth.
As a young girl, I enjoyed a measure of blissful ignorance in the “new” Zimbabwe of the early 80s. I remember playing games like switi, stuck in the mud, and piggy in the middle. Some days I literally chased every yellow butterfly I saw. Little did I know that later in my life, I would be jumping up and down but ultimately getting nowhere. That I would find myself truly stuck in the mud, and constantly feeling like that piggy in the middle, vainly dodging blows from balls being thrown at me from different angles at once.
It seems like all I am chasing are the shadows of my dreams – reaching out but never quite grasping them.
The Dream Deferred or Stolen?
Many of my fellow “born free” millennial comrades share my sentiments – there is a sense of having been cheated somehow. We sit in our homes and try to piece together broken promises while disillusionment sets in like a chilling dampness, even as we strive daily to shake its hold off our lives.

Our individual and collective growth and development as young Zimbabweans seems to be stunted. Opportunities that were almost ripe for us to pick have fallen to the ground and are rotting.

All Seeking Escape: Queuing for Visas at SA Embassy in Harare

Meanwhile, colleagues in the diaspora are maximising their potential and experiencing career growth in leaps and bounds – not all of them, but many of them. Not that we are any different from them, but just that the environment they operate in welcomes their participation, supports their ideas and rewards them for raising their hand.

We, however, are spending the prime of our lives trying to make ends meet, in spite of our much-exalted education. Unable to keep up with school fees. Unable to give our children a better life than we had. Unable to support our parents adequately. Unable to keep a business afloat. Unable to plan beyond three months. Unsure of what tomorrow holds. Unconvinced by newspaper headlines attempting to paint a rosy picture with glowing reports of government’s hollow exploits.
So-called professionals are professional vendors. Instead of working for a living, many are hustling…or worse. The question that begs: Is this what freedom means?

We Have the Power to Claim Our Future
If anyone asks me what I want for Christmas in 2018, this is it: I want my future back. I just want a fair shot at achieving the highest and best expression of myself, whatever that may look like. Not only do I want it, but my country needs it, and from all of us. In the words of African American poet June Jordan, made famous by Alice Walker, “we are the ones we have been waiting for”.
Perhaps you feel the same way. I hope so.

The question remains, however, what are going to do now? We must play a part in getting our own future back. We must have “skin in the game” now. For too long, we have been not-so-innocent bystanders, unwilling to own up to our complicity in the situation we find ourselves in.

Merely crying about our problems is largely unproductive and only wastes our energy. Rather let us channel that energy towards actively working to bring about the Zimbabwe we want. The Zimbabwe that supports the aspirations of its people. The Zimbabwe that our children and grandchildren will thrive in. The Zimbabwe that has a reputation for not just hard work and education, but creativity, integrity, diversity, productivity, prosperity and even political maturity.

Turning the Tide of History to the Future
We are forever grateful to a generation of liberators who made enormous sacrifices to bring us to where we are today. However, they have taken us as far as they can. The only way to preserve the past is by securing the future. The current environment, locally and globally, requires new ways of thinking, drawing on the wisdom and learning from the mistakes of those that have gone before us. Bridges must be built to allow a generation of nation builders to cross over, to rise up and take their place in history. One of my dreams is to see all our leaders, past, present and future, converge to strategise and find ways to move this great nation forward. I believe this can happen if selfishness can be put aside. We need to find each other and do so genuinely.

The spoils of wars that were fought before I even took my first breath are rightfully mine by virtue of being a daughter of this soil. There is no doubt that Zimbabwe belongs to me, and it belongs to you too. We are citizens, after all.

The Answer Lies in Active Citizenship
So how do we lay claim to our inheritance?
We can begin by practising everyday citizenship. Sometimes small things done deliberately can create big changes. Here are just a few off the top of my head:
Volunteer for a community service project or start one in your neighbourhood
Learn to overcome your fear to speak out and stand for what is right, even in the most trivial circumstances. Everyone has a voice – use yours wisely.

Silvanos Mudzvova Taking Protest to Parliament

Attend a few Parliamentary hearings and send in your submissions
Know what the Constitution of Zimbabwe says
Fill a pothole near your home/school/office
Pick up litter when you see it lying around
Pay for someone else’s fare on the kombi when you have a little extra
Get to know your local councillor and MP. Ask them the hard questions, have crucial conversations and hold them accountable.
Become the local councillor or MP in 2018 – you only need to be 18 years old and a Zimbabwean citizen to qualify
Register to vote
Vote
Find something positive to do in this country
Whatever form that action takes, we each have to play our “small but necessary part”.

African Freedom Day Amidst Nationalist Tyranny
As we commemorated Africa Day on May 25th, I wondered to myself how and what other young people on this continent are celebrating. Do we know enough about our own history? Do we know and understand or appreciate the complexities of the struggle for the right of self-determination? The struggle was to liberate us from any form of oppression and injustice whether from white or black as the legendary Josiah Magama Tongogara remarked: “We are fighting to see that this oppressive system is crushed…But I am dying to see a change in the system. That’s all and that’s all. I would like to see the young people enjoying together, black and white. Enjoying together in a New Zimbabwe and that’s all”.  It follows, that as Africa’s young we appreciate that Africa Day’s marks an important history of the continent and as we celebrate it, take stock of the dream of independence stolen by the nationalist elites.

Whither the Youth: Unemployed Graduates Are on the Rise

An ever-increasing youth bulge on the African continent means amidst no clear strategies and deliberate policies to address unemployment and livelihood questions means we will reach unprecedented levels of unemployment by 2030. Former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo says that this is a powder keg waiting to explode. It is no longer sufficient to talk about employment in the traditional sense. We have to understand the future of work – not just jobs - in the context of a globalised world where the rate of change is accelerating. As young Zimbabweans, we have to interrogate the policies of our government and whether they will deliver the 2 million jobs promised or whether it is just puffing hot air. All we can expect is more smoke and mirrors to keep us distracted while the hard work of looting continues. Already, it is claimed that the Beitbridge-Chirundu Highway is going to create 300000 jobs - a statistic just thrown around to excite us and to create a semblance of hope as the spin gains momentum towards the 2018 elections. These are the “lies, damned lies and statistics” that Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli warned against. Young people in Zimbabwe need to listen attentively and analyse these figures being thrown around to avoid being deceived.

Those who, through colonialism and apartheid, oppressed our fathers and mothers long ago banked on them remaining divided and weak. But they realised that they shared a common enemy and united towards one destiny of a free and prosperous Africa, hence we commemorate Africa Day. So, it is today, where we are confronted by a similar challenge of oppression not from the white men but from our own people. But even as they had a choice to make, we also have to make a choice and this responsibility we cannot subcontract to anyone or defer to any other generation. In fact, it is a historic mandate.

Never Wait for a Revolution: The Whole is Greater than the Sum of its Parts
We could remain trapped in the vicious cycle of blaming, pointing fingers, accusing, complaining, being angry and - worst of all – apathetic. – Or we could choose to be victims no more.
I propose that instead of simply imputing blame, we take responsibility. That is what true leadership is about. By coming together with like-minded people who share our patriotism and our passion for national development, I am convinced that we can start to turn things around. A critical mass of concerned citizens can be very disruptive, but in a good way. Let us not wait for some far off revolution because all small actions count and the sum of the number is greater than the whole. Instead, let us do something small where ever we are and seek to collaborate with others who share our values in the quest for a better life. As one wise man in Zimbabwe has stated, you start with a trickle, then it becomes a stream, then a river then a flood.
*Sharon Wekwete is a concerned Zimbabwean citizen, a lawyer and Humphrey Fellow with interests in institutional reform, anti-corruption, youth leadership & political participation as well as international development. She is also the founder of the Institute for the Development of African Leadership (IDEAL). Contact her on sharonwekwete@gmail.com   


The Resurgence of the Democratic Movement in Zimbabwe. Morgan Richard Tsvangirai*

The Democratic Opposition on the Rise
It might have taken long in coming but the past few months have seen the much-awaited resurgence of the democratic movement in Zimbabwe.
For a long time, this is what the people of Zimbabwe have been clamouring for; in the hope that such a convergence would provide the much-needed fillip for change in a country now tottering on the brink of becoming a failed State.
The pace might not be breath-taking, but slowly, the convergence of the country’s democratic forces is becoming a reality. It is pertinent to state from the outset that as a party, we have played our part in this congregation of the democratic forces.
Indeed, contrary to the misinformed refrain by our detractors, we have shown that it has never bandied ourselves the big boys of the democratic movement. In the past few months, we have shown that we truly believe that everyone has a part to play in the democratization of our country, notwithstanding the stubborn fact that that of all the democratic forces, we have the biggest representation both in Parliament and in local government where we control major cities, towns and rural district councils.
However, we have not allowed these unstinting facts to stand in the way of the urgent need for all the democratic forces in the country to coalesce and mount a formidable challenge in the next election.

Convergence of All Progressive Forces is the Way
We were the first through the resolutions of our 4th national Congress in October 2014 to come up with two important resolutions. The first was urging all people to come under one big tent; the second was to publicly call for the coalition of like-minded groups in order to liquidate the palpable mis-governance and cluelessness that has overwhelmed the seat of government.
Since then, we have been up and running up until our national council gave legs to the Congress resolutions by adopting principles and a framework to guide the process of alliance building.
After all, working with others runs in our blood. The formation of the MDC was in itself a product of the alliance of the labour movement, the constitutional movement and the student movement. Hence, our commitment in 2014 to working with others was simply a restatement of our totem!

Following the adoption of the principles guiding the alliance-building process by the national council, I then began a nation-wide consultation with ordinary Zimbabweans including traditional chiefs, headmen, village heads, civic groups, housewives, vendors, students and women’s groups in all the provinces. It was important to de-elitize the alliance-building discourse by devolving it to the people; to the villages, the farming communities and the town halls so as to tap into the wisdom of the ordinary people.

As the one mandated by my party to lead the process of alliance building, I can say with confidence that I found the consultations very enriching as I received further direction from the ordinary people, who expressed their wish to see the broader democratic movement working together.
From Hwange, Binga, Plumtree, Beitbridge, Gokwe to Bikita, Chimanimani, Mudzi, Mount Darwin and Nyamakate, they were all very emphatic on the need for a huge national coalition for change. I know because I personally engaged the people. And I heard them.
As a party, we have been engaging others in the broader democratic movement, far much more than those with whom we have signed MOUs in line with the directive from the people. We have been very clear from the outset that the alliance we seek goes beyond just political parties to include networks such as the church, war veterans, students, vendors, traditional leaders and women’s groups whose sonorous instructions are still ringing in my mind.
Indeed, we want to build a huge coalition for change that goes beyond party slogans; a coalition rooted in the people in their various social stations where they continue to slug it out under very difficult circumstances.
As we prepare for the voter registration exercise, we must encourage each other to register and determine our own future. This election is no longer about Morgan Tsvangirai, Robert Mugabe, Welshman Ncube, Amai Mujuru, Simba Makoni or any other political leader for that matter. This election is about us as a people and it has now become a national obligation for all of us to turn out in our large numbers and use the opportunity of 2018 to poise the country for positive change.

The Task Ahead: Convergence on Transformative Policy Agenda.
Once we have built this alliance---and we are well on course—we must agree on a credible policy agenda as a key signpost to the positive change we seek.

We must not only have a pre-election pact about seats and other relatively petty matters but we must agree on the fundamentals of the policy agenda that we will embark on after the next election.
Given the comatose state of our industry, our dilapidated infrastructure and the country’s despicable and tenuous predicament, it has become imperative that we embark on a transformation and not a recovery agenda. Recovery is an understatement of what we need to do. We simply need to start afresh.

Passengers at Harare Station: NRZ Used to be First Choice of Travel

Indeed, our predicament is now well beyond any patchwork. It is now about the massive transformation of all facets of our economy. It behoves upon the nation to appreciate that the new administration faces a really daunting task. Yet it is a task that must be done.

All alliance partners need convergence on that transformative policy agenda that must yield a people’s manifesto with details on the key tenets for transformation, not recovery. As I have already stated, given our parlous state, we simply need to start on a new slate. Even in our once-thriving industrial sector that has since collapsed, the technology has simply advanced way beyond the archaic, idle and obsolete machinery that we still have in the country. I say this because we cannot commit the same grievous mistake made by our colleagues when they came into office in 1980. They thought the attainment of independence was the destination when in fact 1980 actually marked the beginning of a critical phase of the struggle. They came in without a cogent plan but we have to be very clear about what we will do well ahead of the next election.

Our colleagues failed to realize that political independence, while it was important, was insufficient. It is always the stretch beyond liberation and political independence where the real work lies. The magnitude of the mammoth work beyond a people’s liberation must not be lost in the excitement of the fall of the strongman! In our case, it is not just about consigning Mugabe and Zanu PF to the dustbins of history. The real work begins the morning after and we have to be very clear from the outset what we will to do. And because time is not on our side, we need to agree on that transformative agenda now so that after the next election, it is all about implementing an agreed programme of action.
Indeed, discussions around this issue are taking shape, tapping into the knowledge of sharp policy minds in the country and on the continent as well as the experience of other countries that have at some point hit rock bottom, as we have done.

Despair Not Zimbabweans: There is Light Beyond the Darkness
Fellow Zimbabweans, I wish to restate that we are on course, even though the pace might appear slow. The broader democratic movement has awakened and is slowly coming together.
In my case, I have met with the church, political leaders from across the spectrum, the army, war veterans, civil servants and leaders of various social networks and civic groups who all converge on the need for a positive trajectory for this country that we love.
We are very much aware, of course, that the stakes are high and that the regime will invest scarce national resources into nothing else but power retention.

Part of the Fleet of Cars Allegedly Bought from Treasury Loot

We must be ready for them, armed with no other weapon except our sheer unity and a collective resolve for change. All we need is a formidable unity that spans from the top to the very grassroots of our nation.

And we are getting there!

The huge task ahead is to ensure that the people freely express themselves in a credible election. To that end, we have shattered our petty differences in the democratic movement. We have found each other and we are now working together under one huge banner of the Zimbabwe National Electoral Reform Agenda (ZINERA). The aim is to ensure that the people’s free expression truly holds and that the country undergoes a peaceful transition where no one must feel their life is endangered.

The change we seek will be good for every Zimbabwean, even for those who have tenaciously fought and frowned upon any prospect for change over the years. I wish to restate that we mean no harm to anyone and none of us should feel endangered by the change we seek.
For some us, the debate around the next election should never be about positions but about conditions! Who holds what position in the new administration is a petty debate being foisted on the nation by small minds, opportunists and detractors of our people; the true sell outs of the people’s struggle.

The next election has always been about Zimbabwe and its urgent quest to move forward, without tainting that clear discourse with a needless debate about positions and personalities.
We in the broader democratic movement are all agreed on one thing; that we cannot let this one chance slip or else future generations will not forgive us for letting them down.
The democratic movement is on the resurgence and indeed, a new Zimbabwe beckons on the horizon.

*Morgan Richard Tsvangirayi is Former Prime Minister of Zimbabwe and the Current President of MDC-T


For any feedback, please email gravitas@ipazim.com


Thursday 25 May 2017

Of Surveys, Authoritarianism and Zimbabwe’s Quick Sand Political Terrain

Of Surveys, Authoritarianism and Zimbabwe’s Quick Sand Political Terrain
by Tamuka C. Chirimambowa and Tinashe L. Chimedza*.


Of spiritual Revelations and Opinion Surveys

On the 3rd of May Afro-barometer released a survey titled ‘Which Direction is Zimbabwe Headed? The Economy, Poverty and Trust in Leaders’. The survey has some intriguing conclusions which must be taken seriously especially in the context of the NERA campaign and the attempt to build a coalition of opposition parties. The last time Afro-barometer released its survey before the 2013 general elections it caused an uproar within the opposition formations in Zimbabwe. That particular survey was dismissed as an attempt to ‘sanitize’ a process of stealing the election and some went as far as providing prophetic statements that they had received visions of Morgan Tsvangirai’s win over his longtime rival Robert Mugabe. In the 2013 elections the MDC-T decided to ignore surveys and intellectuals, but they paid dearly. We have travelled the route before of dismissing national poll surveys. The recent survey has already had very variegated responses from the opposition formations and some have dismissed the survey results as understating the influence of the ‘margin of terror’. However, there have been some sober voices who are saying ‘let’s pay attention to the data’ as outright dismissal does not translate into a political strategy that will mitigate the same ‘margin of terror’ to transfer from the poll survey to the polling station. One of the things we have been trying to do at Gravitas is to really look closely at Zimbabwe’s political economy and reveal how the party-state has developed a complex set of instruments which entrenches its hegemony and the results of the survey point to some important contestations which must be paid attention to.

Understanding the Data: Why Afro-Barometer Surveys Matter

The publication of the survey caused quiet an intense debate; from the very banal which wanted to focus on the methodology and methods used, through the more nuanced which sought to unpack the data and ultimately also stirred some very robust debates. Takura Zhangazha in his blog (11.05.2017) has argued that the survey must jolt those in the opposition into action and this must be based on the ‘bread and butter’ issues that dominated the survey results.  Some have even pointed that the Afrobarometer/MPOI survey might have been ‘state-funded’ and developed some very puzzling theories to support such a very far-fetched unintellectual position. Yours truly, Co-Editors of Gravitas, attended one of the Afrobarometer/MPOI dissemination seminar and the presentation kicked up a storm of lively debates and it was interesting to note that the opposition was very represented.
Fig 1.0 Takura Zhangazha: Opposition Must Pay Attention to Poll Results

We are not going to labor on the questions of methodology but we are interested here in some very instructive statistics and how they may be useful to the pro-democracy movement. For instance, the survey revealed that over 64% of the population agreed that the country was going in the wrong direction; secondly, 78% revealed that they were not free to criticize the seating president and the same survey revealed that 64% trust President Mugabe while 36% distrust the opposition, thus causing critiques within the pro-democracy movement to dismiss them. Some of the arguments advanced to dismiss the statistics stem from the fact that if the majority believe that the country is going in a wrong direction, then it follows that a similar or closer margin should not trust the president. Whilst such arguments may appeal to common sense they fail to grasp the complexities of social or political phenomena. It may happen that the trust may stem from that they attribute the bad performance of government to other factors or it could be an issue of the effectiveness of propaganda. The contradictory nature of the results may speak to the duality of African society or bifurcated nature as advanced by Mamdani, Ekeh and Gumede. The scholars argue about the existence of two publics or societies in one geographic polity yet is laden with contradictory political and economic behaviour. Therefore, it may mean understanding these survey needs to dig deeper at the structural nature of the society to connect the dots and make sense of the surveys. The non-linearity or non-teleological determinism of the statistics does not dismiss the validity of the surveys but is a call for attentive listening to the pro-democracy movement.  

Grand-coalitions Beyond the Memorandum of Understandings

Zimbabwe’s opposition political formations have begun to build a grand-coalition in order to build a nationally present political force which can effectively mobilize to dislodge ZANU PF from state-power.  The ruling elites on their end have taken this ‘threat’ seriously and have constantly denounced the coalition in the party-state controlled newspapers and state institutions especially the security apparatus have been very busy throwing all sort of spanners in the political terrain. As this process goes on there seems to be limited attention being paid to a deliberate process of expanding the coalition to reach out to non-traditional demographics by building a national policy agenda as a platform for political mobilization and expanding the structural reach of the opposition movement. Margaret Dongo has been scathing on the process arguing that ‘It is not a coalition emanating from the grassroots, but an idea of people who want to maintain power and are a busy trading persons, that’s their supporters, in an envelope (sic). We need a coalition initiated by the people on the ground, the voters themselves. A coalition should not be viewed as a hiding nest for the corrupt and looters. In fact, Zimbabweans are not clear yet about a coalition’ (Newsday, May 10 2017).
 Fig 1.1 Will the Coalition Expand Beyond the Political Elites?

Some that are close to the opposition have been very critical of any debates that point to the weaknesses of the coalition especially its lack of a national policy agenda. However, there are some heartening voices in the opposition gauging by the SAPES public debate where PDP’s Jacob Mafume cautioned against treating the idea of a coalition as a high school re-union or MDC-T’s Nelson Chamisa strong arguments for a convergence of the various social classes (old and new) found in Zimbabwe’s polity rather than a gathering of political parties only and the call to bring back the ideas of the republic to inform our politics.

Fig 1.2 MDC-T Vice President calling for a broader coalition

Generally, the argument was that a coalition has to go beyond trade in personality cults but to ideas coalescing around addressing the different social discontent found in Zimbabwe’s political economy. The faster this message rings and takes root in all opposition formations, the faster that idea of grand coalition will gain traction and prospects of success.

In the Herald of the 9th of May 2017 an article written by Dr Toendepi Shonhe was regurgitated and an infantile attempt was made to spin the analysis towards validating the entrenchment of a ZANU PF party-state hegemony. The articles that we publish through Gravitas as a briefing of the Institute of Public Affairs in Zimbabwe (IPAZIM) have a deliberate political economy analysis which digs into the structural questions which influence not only the electoral process but also the economic transformation of the country and or lack of it. Dr Toendepi Shonhe’s article was focused on structural questions of how Zimbabwe’s political economy and especially agrarian changes are driving some income accumulation and distribution questions, hence flagging these issues as homework for the pro-democratic movement rather than the Herald’s imagined soothsaying victory for ZANU PF. The propagandist’s wish! In the 1980s and stretching into the 1990s there was a ‘cohort’ of Zimbabwean intellectuals like Professor Masipula Sithole, Professor John Makumbe, Shadreck Gutto, Ibbo Mandaza, Brian Raftopoulos, Professor Sachikonye, Professor Rudo Gaidzanwa, Dr Godfrey Kanyenze, Professor Patricia Macfadden and the bombastic Kempton Makamure who provided very welcome analyses of the actually existing political economy and this is the tradition that informs Gravitas. We are alive to the fact that building a broad political movement which can challenge nationalist authoritarianism must be informed both by real political organization and that political mobilization has to be strategically anchored in very clear narratives and ideas. Historically it was very clear that colonialism, settlerism and apartheid were very oppressive social/economic systems yet the mobilization against such was esteemed in what was called the National Democratic Revolution. Effectively this meant that the battleground was both sustained by and through militancy which was itself immersed in a set of ideas that had a very clear analysis of the actually existing political economy and also presented a set of principles upon which future de-colonized societies would be built.

Reconfigured Political Economy & A National Agenda

One of the driving questions at Gravitas is how do we deliberately expose the structural questions of Zimbabwe’s political economy so as to inform, deliberately and strategically, the contestations for a more democratic Zimbabwe. Around 2000 two major processes came to a head in Zimbabwe’s political landscape: on one hand was the formation of the MDC whose handmaiden was the National Working People’s Convention, on the other hand was the sharpening of civil society mobilization via the National Constitutional Assembly. What is immediately important here is to point out that the civil society mobilization of the 1990s and spilling into the early 2000s provided a political terrain which was very fertile for the MDC to build deep and legitimate political power.
Fig 1.3 Powerful Unions Meant a Mobilised Social Base for the Opposition

It is nearly 20 years since this process effectively transformed Zimbabwe’s political terrain and over that period ZANU PF has marshalled the party machinery and wielded the state apparatus to its agenda producing what has been called the ‘party-state’. We are interested here in expanding the debate on both the present state of Zimbabwe’s ‘civil society’ and partly that of the MDC primarily because when one looks at these historical process; it emerges that the MDC developed significant political and social power in a national context in which civil society was nationally popular. It was popular in the sense that the actually existing civil society was grounded in everyday realities but most importantly there was a very grounded connection between the civil society platforms and the constituency they represented.  This connect between civil society institutions and the constituencies they represented produced a structural relationship in which social discontent was articulated in direct relationship with the actual constituency. The result was real social political power which tilted the balance of forces in favor of the pro-democracy movement, this balance of forces was only partially tilted back to the party-state through a complex process of violence and nationalist authoritarianism.

Complexities of Coalitions, Networks & Civil Society Contestations

In the twilight of the 1990s and the early 2000s it was very evident that civil society could not be ignored by ZANU PF and the party-state started several ‘counter-intelligence’ projects of disinformation and where this failed they interfered directly. The ZCTU was faced with a new ‘trade union’ called ZFTU, the NCA was faced with the NDA; the ZINASU was faced by ZICOSU and the repression and suppression of democratic space was carried out from; arrests, torture, detentions and the threat of ‘de-registration’. The NCA could amass thousands for a ‘peace protest’; the ZCTU was the key anchor of the national social base where all other social classes came to coalesce; and residents’ organizations were organically organized. But here is what was peculiar about the end of the 1990s and the early 2000s the organisations which constituted themselves into the NCA for example and eventually the Crisis Coalition had a real ‘rubber to the ground’ relationship with their constituencies. As a result, it was common for the NCA activists, for ZINASU students and even MDC activists to be actively involved in organizing a stayaway called by the ZCTU. Student leaders participated in ‘Labour Forums’ and the NCA had a Taskforce which was initially nationally organized but eventually had regional presence and also even presence in 120 constituencies. These networks of civil society within residents organisations; student organisations; women’s organisations and human rights organisations meant there was an active social base which could be relied on to challenge the state. Initially the party-state dismissed the NCA as a ‘few people under a tree’ yet when the referendum was held and ZANU PF lost it became very clear that the social base had shifted and social and political power was now resting outside the party-state.  The point here is that the rise and rise of the MDC from 1999 to its peak during the GNU cannot be explained outside the context of how an active civil society with an actual base was mobilized.  The ‘No Vote’ was won by actual work on the ground; women produced the Women’s Charter; the ZCTU structures mobilized workers; the students mobilized students and residents organisations did the same: what was very evident here is the referendum managed to build some sort of confluence of disparate social and political forces into a national avalanche of social discontent.

Making Authoritarianism Costly: Expanding the Battle-lines Broadly

Ultimately, we are arguing that while the primary responsibility of wrestling power from ZANU PF lies in the hands of the Democratic Opposition (MDC-T and its cousins, the NPP and perhaps the ‘coalition’) this is only possible in a terrain in which civil society is very active and intensively nationally mobilized. The Democratic Opposition can function more powerfully in a political economy in which there is and it is linked to a very organized, very organic, very broad and very popular civil society. Mobilized civil society and a well mobilized agenda driven coalition will ensure a steady erosion of nationalist authoritarianism; in the words of democratization theorist, Alfred Stephan,  authoritarianism must be costly and the only way to do it is to expand battle-lines and make sure the following happens: 1) resisting integration into the regime; 2) guarding zones of autonomy against it; 3) disputing its legitimacy; 4) raising the costs of authoritarian role; and 5) creating a credible democratic alternative.
*Gravitas Co-Editors.
For any feedback please email: gravitas@ipazim.com.